Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) won the Saxony-Anhalt state election on Sunday, September 6, according to broadcaster projections, but it remained uncertain whether the party had secured enough seats to govern alone.
The projected AfD Saxony-Anhalt election result gives the party about 44% of the vote—more than double its 2021 share—and places it far ahead of Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU). The CDU was projected at roughly 18% after governing the eastern state for 24 years.
AfD Saxony-Anhalt election result reshapes the state
Projections reported by Germany’s ARD and ZDF broadcasters put the AfD at slightly more than 44%. Reuters reported a 44.4% projection, while the Associated Press said the party was running at a little over 44% based on exit polling and partial counting. Turnout was reported above 80%.
The scale of the result matters even if the AfD cannot form a government. Saxony-Anhalt, a state of about 2.1 million people, has been led by the CDU since 2002. The projected collapse in CDU support represents a sharp rebuke for both the state party and Merz’s federal government.
AfD lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund presented the vote as a mandate to govern. However, the final distribution of seats—not only the headline vote share—will determine whether that is possible.
Why an AfD government is not guaranteed
Germany’s proportional electoral system means a party can finish first without controlling a majority of seats. The outcome depends partly on whether smaller parties clear the 5% threshold required to enter the state parliament.
Mainstream parties have ruled out governing with the AfD. That political barrier, often called the “firewall,” could still leave the party outside government unless it wins an outright legislative majority or finds a willing partner. Projections cited by AP placed the AfD at least marginally short of a majority, though the margin could change as counting continued.
The CDU therefore may still try to assemble an alternative arrangement with smaller parties. Such negotiations would be difficult: the state’s fragmented result may require cooperation—or outside support—from parties that disagree sharply on national policy.
What the vote means beyond Saxony-Anhalt
This is the AfD’s strongest performance in a German state election and strengthens its claim to be a national governing force. The party is already the largest opposition group in Germany’s federal parliament and has built its deepest support in the formerly communist east.
The result also intensifies pressure on Merz. Reuters reported that the AfD has risen to about 28% in a recent national INSA poll, ahead of the conservatives. A single state election does not predict a federal result, but the magnitude of the Saxony-Anhalt swing will shape the debate over the government’s economic record, migration policy and political strategy.
The AfD’s Saxony-Anhalt branch is classified as a proven right-wing extremist organization by the state domestic intelligence agency. The party rejects the classification and argues that accusations of extremism are politically motivated.
Policies and powers at stake
Siegmund campaigned on tighter immigration rules, changes to education and public broadcasting, and opposition to support for Ukraine. Some foreign-policy demands—such as lifting sanctions on Russia—cannot be decided by a state government.
Germany’s states do, however, exercise substantial authority over policing, schools and cultural policy. State governments also participate in the Bundesrat, the upper chamber that reviews parts of federal legislation. Saxony-Anhalt controls four of the chamber’s 69 votes.
That makes the coalition outcome consequential even if the state is relatively small. The immediate questions are whether the AfD’s projected vote converts into a majority of seats and whether other parties can construct a viable government without it.
What happens next
Election officials will certify the final result and seat allocation. Parties will then open talks over a governing majority. Until those figures are confirmed, claims that the AfD has secured control of the state government remain premature.
The Daily Vantage will update this report if the certified result materially changes the projected vote share or the balance of seats.
